How a pandemic altered democracy

UNSW researcher Dr Carolien van Ham says authoritarian regimes are using the pandemic as a way to strengthen their grip on power. Speaking from the Netherlands, Dr van Ham says the most extreme example is in Hungary.

“Basically, Prime Minister Viktor Orban persuaded parliament to agree that he can rule indefinitely by decree. So we can now consider Hungary an electoral autocracy,” the expert in comparative politics at UNSW Arts & Social Sciences says.

On March 30, the Hungarian parliament passed the new set of measures on a majority of 137 to 53 votes, justifying it as a necessary extension of the state of emergency response to the coronavirus pandemic. “Parliament gave him their powers. And now he can rule by decree until he wants, which is really worrying because Hungary is in the middle of Europe,” Dr van Ham says.

The legislation also gives the government power to imprison people for up to five years for spreading misinformation about COVID-19. This has worried many, including the European Parliament, who say the new laws could be used to silence the media, the opposition and any government failings in their response to the virus.

Dr van Ham says there is a similar situation in Poland, where the government has taken advantage of the pandemic by trying to push controversial legislation through parliament, “knowing full well that no one can demonstrate”.

“People were out on the streets protesting about stricter abortion legislation when it was being discussed in parliament, before COVID-19,” Dr van Ham says. “Now the government has brought these laws back onto the parliamentary agenda. And in full autocracies there are worse things going on . In Hong Kong, many of the pro-democracy protesters have been put in jail. Of course, again, making use of the fact that people can’t go on the streets and protest even further,” she says. “Other authoritarian regimes also seem to be using the pandemic to strengthen control and silence detractors.”

But at the same time, the epidemic also poses challenges to authoritarian regimes, such as in Russia, where President Putin is seeing falling approval ratings. Dr van Ham has also noticed a blame-shifting trend in not only authoritarian regimes but also countries with more democratic federal systems like the US, Brazil and Australia. So, if you’re in power, then how do you make sure that the blame doesn’t come to you?

“In a federal system, the brilliant thing you can do is say ‘the power goes to the states. I really want to reopen the country and economy, but it’s the state governments, they’re just not doing what I want’,” she says. “Trump is doing this, and he seems to be learning from other leaders such as President Bolsonaro in Brazil.”

Dr van Ham says Putin recently used the blame-shifting technique when he announced a plan to lift Russia’s quarantine measures only a day after the nation reached their highest number of infections to date.

“It’s the worst possible moment to announce a path out of lockdown,” she says. “It seems that what he really announced was … that the states can decide when they can come out of lockdown. Because out of about [the] 80 regions that Russia has, approximately only 10 have seen a decrease in infections, so they’re the only ones that can reopen and the others will have to stay closed,” she says. “So at least now it’s the regional leaders’ decision, not Putin’s anymore. He’s doing what he can to keep his support from falling. And this also all suggests to me that something really is going on in Russia, because Putin is normally leading in these kinds of techniques and now he’s following other nations,” Dr van Ham says.

A fact sheet on COVID-19 and the demographic distribution of health and economic risks, released by the ARC Centre of Excellence in Population Ageing Research (CEPAR), provides a current snapshot of the risks of workplace infection exposure, morbidity and mortality, and job losses across the Australian population, particularly for older people aged 55 years and over.

“As restrictions in Australia ease and the economy reopens, there are potential health and economic risks that are multi-dimensional and differ by location, occupation, industry, and age,” said author Rafal Chomik, CEPAR Senior Research Fellow at UNSW Sydney.

The analysis of Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data shows such risks are shared unequally across locations, occupations and industries. But a key driver of differences is age and socioeconomic status.

For example, areas with less healthy populations tend to be either older, poorer, or both.

The analysis also suggests that alongside unemployment impacts there are considerable risks that some people leave the labour force permanently.

“The fact sheet discusses the various policy implications,” said Rafal Chomik. “For example, while older workers have so far seen lower rates of job loss than younger workers, historic data suggests that they are twice as likely to become inactive after a spell of unemployment. Policy interventions for ways to retain, retrain, and redeploy such mature workers will be required.”

KEY FINDINGS

Health risk by location

Some areas have a higher health risk because their population is older, poorer, or both.

There are higher health risks in regional areas which may require ready deployment of remedial resources when relaxing travel between regions.

Infection risk by occupation

As the economy reopens the infection risk of workplaces will need careful monitoring.

Occupations with higher infection risks present a vulnerability since many are held by older people (who are more likely to have co-morbidities) and/or those on lower incomes and casual contracts (who may be unable and unwilling to take time off in case of infection).

About 70% of hospitality workers, 50% of sales assistants, and 30% of carers report to be on casual contracts. This suggests the potential need for paid pandemic leave (currently unpaid leave is available to casual workers).

Risk of retrenchment and retirement

The analysis of numbers of workers in each age group against current rates of job loss and typical rates of dropping out of the labour force following unemployment suggests that policies will be needed to ensure older people can return to work over the medium term.

Although younger workers have been worst hit, history shows that regaining employment is harder in late age. Older people are more likely to become discouraged and retire following an unemployment spell. Analysis shows about 22% of those aged 55+ were neither looking nor available for work one year after unemployment. For those in their 20s the rate was 7%.

Combined health and workplace infection risks by area

Analysis of health risk and workplace infection risks by area reveals considerable heterogeneity. The health risk depends on the area’s health and age structure. The workplace infection risk depends on an area’s composition of occupations and each occupation’s typical infection exposure (estimated prior to social distancing changes). The centres of major cities appear to have lower risks based on these measures.

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